Daily Technical Forex Report 21.11.2018

EUR/USD

EUR/USD adjusted down after the creation of the new level of resistance 1.1463 yesterday. At the moment the price is located within the local consolidation between this mark and the previous level of support 1.1267.

(this is a futures chart, so the price here differs from the Forex, but it moves totally the same)

Thus, we can ponder new positions only after the confident and sharp exit of the price from the local range. Moreover, the breakout movement must be supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable and accurate signal for entering the market.

While the pair is located within the consolidation, we should omit this instrument from our trading plan.

The bottom line: waiting for the sure exit of the price from the range.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD resumed its abrupt drop and now is located near the level of support/lower limit of the local consolidation 1.2742. Hence, we can consider a scenario of its breakdown, which will be a great bearish signal.

(this is a futures chart, so the price here differs from the Forex, but it moves totally the same)

The fall of the pair must be sharp, sure and supported by the large volume, which will be a more secure signal for entering the market and will insure us against a fake breakdown. A stop loss should be placed above the breakdown volume bar. A potential of the deal is more than 120 points.

The bottom line: short positions after the sharp breakdown of the support.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY grew up strongly after the formation of the new level of support 112.35. The move was supported by the increased volume. Moreover, the price is located in the local consolidation between this mark and the level of resistance 113.69. Therefore, we can regard new positions only after the sure exit of the price from this range. The breakout movement must be supported by the large volume, which will be a more precise and secure signal for entering the market.

While the pair is trading within this consolidation, we should stay out of the market.

The bottom line: new positions only after the confident exit of the pair from the consolidation.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD showed an abrupt rise on the large volume and broke out the previous level of resistance, which is a great bullish signal. Thus, we should give preference to long positions. We can enter the market after the smooth correction of the price down, in order to get a more profitable entry point. A stop loss should be placed below the beginning of the breakout move. A potential of the deal is more than 100 points.

The bottom line: long positions after the smooth downward correction of the price.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD demonstrated a keen sink on the large volume yesterday. Besides it, we should allocate a new resistance level 0.7330. So now the price is located inside the local consolidation between this mark and the level of support 0.7170. Hence, the best solution with this pair is just to wait for the exit of the price from the local range. The breakout move must be abrupt and supported by the large volume, which will insure us against a fake breakout.

Until that, we’d better stay out of the market.

The bottom line: waiting for the keen exit of the pair from the local range.

XAU/USD

Gold corrected downwards after the creation of the new resistance level 1227.00 – 1228.30. This level contains the large volume. Therefore, we can consider long positions only after the sure and keen breakout of this mark.

(this is a futures chart, so the price here differs from the Forex, but it moves totally the same)

The surge must be supported by the large volume, which will insure us against a false breakout and will be a more reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss should be placed below the breakout volume bar. A potential of the deal is around 80 points.

If the price goes on falling down, we should stay out of the market.

The bottom line: purchases after the confident breakout of the resistance.

The mood of retail traders (trading against the "crowd"): the sentiment of the market confirms our scenarios with GBP/USD and USD/CAD, which is a good additional signal. The situation with gold is ambiguous, so we should be more careful. With all other pairs, we should wait for the exit of prices from local ranges.  

Potentially good deals: GBP/USD, USD/CAD, XAU/USD

Stay out of the market: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD

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