Daily Technical Forex Report 20.11.2018

EUR/USD

EUR/USD continued growing and broke out the previous resistance level, which is a good bullish signal. Unfortunately, the rise was on the average volume, so we can’t enter the market at the moment as the possibility of correction is pretty high.

(this is a futures chart, so the price here differs from the Forex, but it moves totally the same)

Thus, we can open purchases after the resumption of the surge, but the move must be supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss should be placed below this rise. A potential of the deal is around 110 points.

The bottom line: long positions after the resumption of the sharp rise.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD went on adjusting up and now is located in the local consolidation between 2 strong levels. They are the level of support 1.2742 and the level of resistance 1.3031. Both levels contain the large volume. Hence, we can consider new positions only after the exit of the price from the consolidation.

(this is a futures chart, so the price here differs from the Forex, but it moves totally the same)

The breakout movement must be confident, sharp and supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable and accurate signal for entering the market and will insure us against a fake breakout.

If the price carries on trading within this range, we should stay out of the market.

The bottom line: waiting for the exit of the price from the range.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY continued its sharp fall yesterday. Besides it, we should point out the new resistance level 112.90. Given these factors, we should prefer short positions. We can enter the market after a smooth upward correction of the price, in order to get a more profitable entry point. A stop loss should be placed above the resistance. A potential of the deal is 80 points.

The bottom line: short positions after a smooth upward correction of the pair.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD is still located in the middle of the local consolidation between the level of support 1.3055 and the level of resistance 1.3258. Therefore, we can open new positions only after the confident and abrupt exit of the price from the range. The breakout move must be supported by the large volume, which will be a more secure and precise signal for entering the market.

Until that, we should stay out of the market.

The bottom line: new positions after the sure exit of the price from the range.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD adjusted down, but the movement was smooth and on the small volume. That’s why we can’t open short positions. Moreover, given a strong support level 0.7250 and recent sharp growth, we still should consider long positions. We can enter the market after a stoppage of the correction and a resumption of the keen rise on the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss should be placed below the support level. A potential of the deal is more than 80 points.

The bottom line: long positions should be in priority.

XAU/USD

Gold resumed rising and is testing the resistance level 1223.50 – 1224.90. Hence, our previous scenario remains the same: we can long positions only after the breakout of this mark.

(this is a futures chart, so the price here differs from the Forex, but it moves totally the same)

The surge of the pair must be abrupt and supported by the large volume, which will insure us against a fake breakout and will be a more precise signal for entering the market. A stop loss should be placed below the breakout volume bar. A potential of the deal is around 100 points.

The bottom line: purchases after the confident breakout of the resistance.

The mood of retail traders (trading against the "crowd"): this indicator affirms all our trading scenarios except gold. With this instrument, we should wait for the appearance of additional signal to open new positions. As with the Pound and Canadian dollar, it is necessary to wait for the sure exit of the pair from the range. 

The best deals: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD

Potentially good deals: XAU/USD

Stay out of the market: GBP/USD, USD/CAD

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