Daily Technical Forex Report 19.11.2018

EUR/USD

EUR/USD showed an abrupt growth on the large volume and is trading near the level of resistance/upper limit of the local consolidation 1.1425. Hence, we can and should consider a scenario of its breakout, which will allow us to open long positions.

(this is a futures chart, so the price here differs from the Forex, but it moves totally the same)

The rise of the pair should be keen and confident, also supported by the large volume, which will insure us against a fake breakout and will be a more precise signal for entering the market. A stop loss should be placed below the breakout volume bar. The first target – 70 points, the second one – 120 points. 

The bottom line: long positions after the sure breakout of the resistance.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD corrected upwards on Friday, but the move was smooth and on the average volume. Given the recent sharp fall on the large volume, we still should prefer short positions. Besides it, we must point out the level of support 1.2742.

(this is a futures chart, so the price here differs from the Forex, but it moves totally the same)

Thus, we can open sales only after the resumption of the keen drop and sure breakdown of the level of support. The move must be supported by the large volume, which will be a more secure signal for entering the market. A stop loss should be placed above the breakdown volume bar. A potential of the deal is more than 120 points.

If the price goes on rising, we should stay out of the market.

The bottom line: short positions after the sharp breakdown of the support.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY sank and broke down the level of support on Friday. Moreover, the fall was sharp and on the large volume, which is a good bearish signal. That’s why, we should give advantage to sales. We can enter the market after a smooth upward correction of the price, in order to get a more profitable entry point. A stop loss should be placed above the breakdown volume bar. A potential of the deal is around 80 points.

The bottom line: short positions after a smooth upward correction.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD carries on trading within the local consolidation between the level of support 1.3055 and the level of resistance 1.3258. Therefore, our previous scenario remains the same: we can enter the market only after the confident and abrupt exit of the pair from the local range. The breakout move must be supported by the large volume, which will be a more accurate and reliable signal for entering the market.

While the price is located inside this range, we should omit it from our trading plan.

 

The bottom line: waiting for the exit of the price from the range.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD demonstrated an abrupt surge on the large volume and broke out the previous resistance level on Friday. It is a great bullish signal. Thus, we should give preference to long positions. We can enter the market after a smooth adjustment of the price down, in order to get a more profitable entry point. A stop loss should be located below the beginning of the breakout movement. A potential of the deal is more than 80 points.

The bottom line: purchases after a smooth adjustment of the price down.

XAU/USD

Gold also grew up on the large volume, which is a good bullish signal. The movement was stopped by the new resistance level 1223.50 – 1224.90. Therefore, we can ponder long positions only after its breakout.

(this is a futures chart, so the price here differs from the Forex, but it moves totally the same)

The breakout movement must be confident and supported by the large volume, which will be a more precise and secure signal for entering the market. A stop loss should be placed below the breakout volume bar. A potential of the deal is around 100 points.

The bottom line: long positions after the keen breakout of the resistance level.

The mood of retail traders (trading against the "crowd"): the sentiment confirms all our trading scenarios except gold. With this instrument, we should wait for the appearance of additional signal to open new positions. As with USD/CAD, it is necessary to wait for the exit of the price from the consolidation.  

The best deals: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD

Potentially good deals: XAU/USD

Stay out of the market: USD/CAD

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