Daily Technical Forex Report 18.01.2019

EUR/USD

EUR/USD went on falling, but the movement was smooth and on the small volume. Therefore, we can’t point out any new volume level or zone. Moreover, the pair is still located inside the local range, which contains the large volume.

(this is a futures chart, so the price here differs from the Forex, but it moves totally the same)

Given all these factors, we can consider new positions only after the confident and abrupt exit of the price from the range. The movement must be supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable and accurate signal for entering the market.

Until that, we’d better stay out of the market.

The bottom line: waiting for the exit of the price from the range.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD showed a sharp growth and broke out the previous resistance level, which is a good bullish signal. Unfortunately, the movement was on the average volume, thus, we can’t point out any new volume level or zone.

(this is a futures chart, so the price here differs from the Forex, but it moves totally the same)

Hence, we can open long positions after a continuation of the rise, but the movement must be supported by the large volume, which will be a more secure signal for entering the market. A stop loss should be placed below the beginning of this move. A potential of the deal is more than 100 points.

The bottom line: long positions should be in priority.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY grew up on the increased volume yesterday. The price is currently testing the level of resistance/upper limit of the local consolidation 109.46. Therefore, we can consider a scenario of its breakout, which will be a great bullish signal. The breakout move must be supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss should be placed below the breakout volume bar. A potential of the deal is more than 120 points.

The bottom line: long positions after the sure breakout of the resistance.

USD/CAD

Nothing has changed with USD/CAD as the pair is still located inside the local consolidation between the level of support 1.3183 and the level of resistance 1.3322. Hence, our previous scenario is still relevant: we can regard new positions only after the sure and abrupt exit of the price from the consolidation. The movement must be supported by the large volume, which will insure us against a fake breakout.

While the price is trading within the range, we’d better stay out of the market.

The bottom line: new positions after the exit of the price from the consolidation.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD demonstrated a sharp growth on the large volume, but the pair is still local inside the local consolidation. The boundaries of the consolidation are the support 0.7117 and the resistance 0.7235. Thus, we should wait for the exit of the price from the range and only after that we can consider new positions. Furthermore, the breakout movement must be supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal for entering the market.

While the price is located inside the consolidation, we’d better stay out of the market.

The bottom line: waiting for the exit of the pair from the local consolidation.

XAU/USD

Gold continues trading within the local consolidation between the level of support 1280.00 and the level of resistance 1297.00. We also should point out that the large volume accumulation is concentrated inside the local range.

(this is a futures chart, so the price here differs from the Forex, but it moves totally the same)

Considering all these factors, we can consider new positions with gold only after the confident and keen exit of the price from the consolidation. The movement must be supported by the large volume, which will insure us against a false breakout.

Until that, we’d better stay out of the market.

The bottom line: new deals only after the sharp exit of the price from the consolidation.

The mood of retail traders (trading against the "crowd"): the sentiment confirms our scenario of opening long positions with GBP/USD, that is a good additional signal. As with USD/JPY, we should wait for the appearance of the strong confirming signal. As with other pairs, we should wait for the exit of prices from local consolidations and only after that we can open new positions.

Potentially good deals: GBP/USD, USD/JPY

Stay out of the market: EUR/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, XAU/USD

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