Daily Technical Forex Report 15.11.2018

EUR/USD

EUR/USD continued growing yesterday, moreover, the rise was supported by the large volume. On the other hand, there is a strong downtrend. Besides it, the price is located in the local consolidation between the new support level 1.1267 and the resistance level 1.1425.

(this is a futures chart, so the price here differs from the Forex, but it moves totally the same)

Given the factors above, we can regard new positions only after the sure and abrupt exit of the price from the local consolidation. Furthermore, the breakout move must be supported by the large volume, which will insure us against a fake breakout.

If the price goes on trading inside the range, we should stay out of the market.

The bottom line: waiting for the exit of the price from the local range.

GBP/USD

The same situation with GBP/USD as the price rose up strongly and on the huge volume, but is local within the local consolidation. The boundaries of the range are the new support level 1.2897 – 1.2913 and the resistance level 1.3020 – 1.3035.

(this is a futures chart, so the price here differs from the Forex, but it moves totally the same)

Therefore, the best solution with the Pound is just to wait for the confident and keen exit of the price from this local range. The breakout move must be supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable and accurate signal for entering the market.

Until that, we’d better skip this instrument from our trading plan.


The bottom line: new positions after the sure exit of the pair from the range.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY fell down and broke down the previous support level yesterday. The drop of the pair was stopped by the new volume level 113.41. The price is currently trading near this mark, thus, we can consider a scenario of its breakdown, which will allow us to open short positions.

The breakdown move must be supported by the large volume, which will be a more secure signal for entering the market. A stop loss should be placed above the breakdown volume bar. A potential of the deal is around 80 points.

The bottom line: short positions after the sharp breakdown of the support.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD tested the resistance level, but could not break it out and corrected downwards. At the moment the price is located inside the local consolidation between the level of support 1.3185 and the level of resistance 1.3258. Hence, we can regard new deals only after the sharp breakout of one of these levels and the sure exit of the price from the range. The breakout move must be supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal for entering the market.

While the price is trading within this range, we should stay out of the market.

The bottom line: waiting for the exit of the price from the consolidation.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD soared yesterday, but the move was on the small volume, so we can’t point out any new volume levels or zones. Moreover, the price is located inside the local consolidation between the level of support 0.7170 and the level of support 0.7296. Thus, we can consider new positions only after the keen exit of the price from this range. Furthermore, the breakout movement should be supported by the large volume, which will be a more precise and secure signal for entering the market.

While the pair is locked within this range, we should stay out of the market. 

The bottom line: new positions only after the exit of the pair from the local range.

XAU/USD

Gold grew up sharply and on the large volume and tested the previous level of resistance 1212.80. The price could not break it out, but is still located near it. Besides it, this level contains large volume. Given these factors, we can consider 2 possible trading scenarios.

(this is a futures chart, so the price here differs from the Forex, but it moves totally the same)

  1. A keen rebound of the pair down and a resumption of the fall. In such case we can regard short positions. A stop loss should be placed above the test of the resistance. A potential of the deal is more than 150 points.
  2. A confident and sharp breakout of the resistance level on the large volume, which will be a good bullish signal. A stop loss should be placed below the breakout volume bar. A potential of the deal is around 130 points.

 

The bottom line: waiting for a sharp reaction of the price on the level of resistance.

The mood of retail traders (trading against the "crowd"): the sentiment of the market has not reacted on sharp changed in the market, so that we should be extremely careful today. Given that almost all pairs are in local ranges, we should wait for the exit of price from them and only then we can consider new positions. 

Potentially good deals: USD/JPY

Stay out of the market: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, XAU/USD

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