Daily Technical Forex Report 14.11.2018

EUR/USD

EUR/USD corrected up sharply and on the increased volume yesterday. The volume was evenly spread throughout the move, so we can’t point out any new volume level or zone.

Nevertheless, there is a strong downtrend with the Euro, so now we still should give preference to short positions.

(this is a futures chart, so the price here differs from the Forex, but it moves totally the same)

We can open sales after the stoppage of the adjustment and a resumption of an abrupt fall. The drop must be supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal for entering the market. A stop loss should be placed above this move. A potential of the deal is more than 100 points.

If the price goes on rising, we should stay out of the market.

The bottom line: short positions are still in priority.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD also grew up strongly, but the move was stopped after the formation of the new resistance level 1.3020 – 1.3035. The price is currently trading near this mark. Given that there is no clear trend with the Pound, we can consider 2 possible scenarios.

(this is a futures chart, so the price here differs from the Forex, but it moves totally the same)

  1. A test of the resistance level and a sharp rebound of the pair down. In such case we can regard short positions. A stop loss should be placed above the resistance. A potential of the deal is more than 120 points.
  2. An abrupt and sure breakout of the resistance level on the large volume, which will be a good bullish signal. A stop loss should be placed below the breakout volume bar. A potential of the deal is around 130 points.

The bottom line: waiting for the reaction of the price on the level of resistance.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY is trading within the local consolidation between the level of support 113.62 and the level of resistance 114.13. Hence, we can consider new positions only after the sure and keen exit of the price from this range. The breakout movement should be supported by the large volume, which will be a more secure and precise signal for entering the market.

Until that, we’d better stay out of the market.

The bottom line: new deals only after the exit of the pair from the range.

USD/CAD

It is necessary to point out the new resistance level 1.3258 with USD/CAD. However, given the local uptrend and the fact, that the price is trading near this mark, we should regard a scenario of its breakout, which will be a good bullish signal. The rise must be sharp and supported by the large volume. A stop loss should be located below the breakout volume bar. A potential of the deal is more than 100 points.

The bottom line: long positions after the breakout of the resistance level.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD carries on trading in the local range between the support level 0.7170 and the resistance level 0.7296. Therefore, we should wait for the exit of the pair from this consolidation and only after that we can mull new positions. The breakout movement should be abrupt and supported by the large volume, which will insure us against a fake breakout and will be a more reliable signal for entering the market.

While the price is located within this consolidation, we should stay out of the market.

The bottom line: waiting for the exit of the price from the consolidation.

XAU/USD

Gold also corrected up yesterday, but the move was smooth and on the medium volume, so we can’t allocate any new level or zones. Besides it, there is a strong local downtrend with this instrument, so we still should give advantage to short positions.

(this is a futures chart, so the price here differs from the Forex, but it moves totally the same)

We can enter the market after a stoppage of the adjustment and a resumption of the sharp fall on the large volume, which will be a more secure signal for entering the market. A stop loss should be located above this drop. A potential of the deal is more than 150 points.

The bottom line: short positions are still in priority.

The mood of retail traders (trading against the "crowd"): this indicator fully confirms all our trading scenarios, which is a strong additional signal. The situation with GBP/USD is equal, so we need to wait for appearance of new signals. As with USD/JPY and AUD/USD, we should wait for the sure exit of prices from local ranges and only after that we can regard new positions.

Potentially good deals: EUR/USD, USD/CAD, XAU/USD

Stay out of the market: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD

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