Daily Technical Forex Report 09.11.2018

 

EUR/USD

EUR/USD showed a sharp fall on the large volume yesterday, but remained trading within the local range 1.1304 – 1.1490. However, the pair is located near the lower limit of this consolidation now, so we can consider a scenario of its breakdown, which will be a good bearish signal.

(this is a futures chart, so the price here differs from the Forex, but it moves totally the same)

The breakdown movement must be keen and supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable and accurate signal for entering the market. A stop loss should be placed above the breakdown volume bar. A potential of the deal is more than 100 points.

The bottom line: short positions after the sure breakdown of the support.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD also corrected down yesterday, but the move was on the small volume, so we can’t consider short positions and point out any new volume levels now. Moreover, the price is located within the local consolidation between the support level 1.2964 and the resistance level 1.3168.

(this is a futures chart, so the price here differs from the Forex, but it moves totally the same)

Given all these factors, we can regard new positions with the Pound only after the sure and keen exit of the price from this range. The breakout move must be supported by the large volume, which will be a more secure signal for entering the market.

Until that, we should stay out of the market.

The bottom line: waiting for the exit of the price from the range.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY carried on growing, but the upward move was on the small volume, so we can’t highlight any new volume level or zone. Nevertheless, given the presence of the local uptrend, we still should consider long positions. We can enter the market after the resumption of the sharp rise, but the move must be supported by the large volume, which will be a more precise signal for entering the market. A stop loss should be placed below this surge. A potential of the deal is around 80 points.

The bottom line: long positions after the resumption of the rise on the large volume.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD demonstrated an abrupt growth and broke out the resistance level. Furthermore, the breakout move was supported by the large volume, which is a good bullish signal. So now, we should give preference to long positions. We can enter the market after the smooth downward correction, in order to get a more profitable entry point. A stop loss should be placed below the breakout volume bar. A potential of the deal is more than 100 points.

The bottom line: long positions should be in priority.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD fell down sharply after the creation of the new level of resistance 0.7296 yesterday. The price is currently trading insider the local range between this mark and the level of support 07170. Therefore, we can enter the market only after the sure and abrupt exit of the price from this consolidation. The movement must be supported by the large volume, which will insure us against a fake breakout.

While the pair is located within this consolidation, we should stay out of the market.

The bottom line: new positions after the exit of the pair from the consolidation.

XAU/USD

Gold also fell down and now is located a little bit above the level of support/the lower limit of the local consolidation 1212.50. The move was sharp, so we can consider a scenario of the breakdown of this mark, which will be a good bearish signal.

(this is a futures chart, so the price here differs from the Forex, but it moves totally the same)

The drop of the price must be abrupt and supported by the large volume, which insure us against a false breakdown. A stop loss should be placed above the breakdown volume bar. A potential of the deal is more than 150 points.

The bottom line: short positions after the sharp breakdown of the support level.

The mood of retail traders (trading against the "crowd"): the sentiment of the market totally affirms all our trading scenarios, which is a good additional signal. As with the Pound and Australian dollar, we need to wait for the confident exit of pairs from local ranges and only after that we can consider new positions.

Potentially good deals: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, XAU/USD

Stay out of the market: GBP/USD, AUD/USD

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