Daily Technical Forex Report 04.01.2019

EUR/USD

EUR/USD rise up sharply yesterday. The move was on the large volume, which is a good bullish signal. Nevertheless, the pair is still located within the local consolidation between the support 1.1267 and the resistance 1.1463.

(this is a futures chart, so the price here differs from the Forex, but it moves totally the same)

Hence, we can consider new positions only after the confident and abrupt exit of the price from the local consolidation. The breakout movement must be supported by the large volume, which will be a more precise signal for entering the market.

While the pair is located within the range, we’d better stay out of the market.

The bottom line: waiting for the exit of the price from the range.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD corrected upwards, but the move was on the average volume, so that we can’t point out any new volume level or zone. Besides it, the pair is located within the local consolidation between the support level 1.2539 and the resistance level 1.2750.

(this is a futures chart, so the price here differs from the Forex, but it moves totally the same)

Given all these factors, we can open new positions only after the exit of the price from the local consolidation. The movement must be keen and supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable and accurate signal for entering the market.

Until that, we’d better skip this instrument from our trading plan.

The bottom line: new positions only after the exit of the pair from the range.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY also corrected upwards after the creation of the new support level 107.28. Nevertheless, the move was on the small volume + there is a strong downtrend, so that we still should give preference to short positions. We can enter the market after the resumption of the sink and the sharp breakdown of the support level. The drop must be supported by the large volume, which will insure us against a fake breakdown. A stop loss should be placed above the breakdown volume bar. A potential of the deal is more than 100 points.

The bottom line: short positions are still in priority.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD showed a huge fall on the large volume. Moreover, the pair broke down the previous support level, which is a good bearish signal. We should also allocate the new resistance level 1.3547. Therefore, we should consider a scenario of opening short positions. We can enter the market after a smooth upward correction, in order to get a better entry point. A stop loss should be placed above the resistance. A potential of the deal is around 110 points.  

The bottom line: short positions after a smooth upward correction.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD is trading within the local consolidation between 2 strong volume levels. They are the support 0.6979 and the resistance 0.7073. Thus, we can regard new positions only after the sure breakout of one of these levels and the exit of the pair from this range. The movement must be supported by the large volume, which will be a more reliable signal for entering the market.

If the price goes on trading inside the range, we’d better stay out of the market.

The bottom line: waiting for the sure exit of the price from the consolidation.

XAU/USD

Gold continued rising, moreover, the movement was supported by the large volume, which only increases its role. Hence, we can state that the uptrend with gold is going on, so that we should consider exceptionally long positions.

(this is a futures chart, so the price here differs from the Forex, but it moves totally the same)

We can enter the market after a smooth downward correction of the price, in order to get a better entry point. A stop loss should be placed below the yesterday’s minimum. A potential of the deal is more than 150 points.

The bottom line: long positions are still in priority.

The mood of retail traders (trading against the "crowd"): the sentiment confirms our scenarios with the Yen and gold, which is a good additional signal. As with the Canadian dollar, the situation is ambiguous, so that we should be more careful. We should wait for the exit of prices from local ranges and only after that we can open new positions with other currency pairs.   

Potentially good deals: USD/JPY, USD/CAD, XAU/USD

Stay out of the market: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD

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